Over Hearing

As I took the bus home from work tonight, I overheard two teenaged ladies next to me talking about the current misadventures in the Middle East. One identified herself as Jewish and stated that her family was waiting until the Hizbullah rocket attacks ended before embarking on a trip to the Promised Land. This same young lady's analysis of the conflict was that it was all about religion. Actually, I wanted to tell her, it has little to do with religion like most wars. This one is about land, stuff as always.

So the war in Lebanon continues. Washington has clearly sided with the Israelis and is vetoing any early end to the conflict as has our own thoughtful Prime Minister Stephen Harper. The only prerequisite for an end to hostilities according to Bush and Olmert is the destruction or at least the disarming of Hizbullah. Unfortunately this is easier said than done; Israel failed to in the 1990s and had to flee southern Lebanon thanks to Hizbullah's fighters.

According to an insightful Guardian report that criticized Tony Blair's reaction to the conflict: "To lump together the Taliban, al-Qaida, Hizbullah and Hamas under the heading 'reactionary Islam' is oversimplification to the point where it interferes with the facts. The description of what is happening in Iraq or Afghanistan as 'battles between the majority of Muslims in either country who wanted democracy and the minority who realize that this rings the death knell of their ideology' might just pass in an army recruitment pamphlet, but not as serious conversation between consenting adults."

So Israel will continue to chase a few thousand Hizbullah fighters around southern Lebanon without sanction by anyone. They are assisting in the global war against irrational and mad Islamist terrorists just like the US after all; these people are driven by their religion and couldn't have reasonable political goals right?

Hizbullah by contrast is alone fighting one of the most advanced militaries in the world. I'm sure that their propaganda corps wouldn't have it any other way. Expect them to do quite well in the next Lebanese elections, whenever they happen.

And I'm going to make the bold prediction that short of the nuclear annihilation of southern Lebanon (an option available to Israel), Hizbullah will still be there in two months and even two years. Even if Israel's international force arrives in southern Lebanon (why not northern Israel as well to be fair to both belligerents), it won't last long. Personally I wouldn't save Israel from itself by committing troops to that terrible idea being promoted by Washington and Tel Aviv.

Every day and every bomb dropped by Israel raises their national debt. War is expensive. Hizbullah is going to hang on for months at least which is months of increasing debt for Israel. We shouldn't forget that Hizbullah fights its wars on the cheap and that Lebanese and Palestinians are used to occupation and misery; Israelis are similarly used to fear much like the young lady I overheard on the bus. And that young lady's family will continue to stay away as long as the rockets fly. Which tourist wants to visit a war zone?