Things Fall Apart

It appears that the Coalition of the Willing is losing its cohesiveness in Iraq. And it's not just Tuvalu and American Samoa that are having second thoughts, the big boys seem to be coming around to the realization that Iraq is a quagmire of the first degree. Perhaps the recent discovery of two beheaded American soldiers will speed them on their way and may even influence public opinion in the most belligerent coalition members, the United States and Britain.

Ah beheading! Nothing beats 8th century justice.

To recap the recent developments in the coalition, new Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi has signaled that all Italian troops will leave the Middle Eastern country later this year. This was a key component of his election platform and is unlikely to be swayed by the close election result.

In addition, today Japan announced that it was withdrawing all its, albeit largely non-combat, troops from Iraq. Japan will remove them over the next few weeks but will remain committed to supporting the development of Iraq; but is that possible without security?

The result is that the Americans and the British are slowly becoming the only countries willing to remain and even that enthusiasm is blunted by calls at home to withdraw soon. I believe that the Americans will withdraw the vast majority of their troops soon as will the British; I expect an American announcement on a firm date before the mid-term elections in November in a vain attempt to pry voters away from the Democrats. However this withdrawal will not be total. Americans and British troops will remain in occupation of huge military complexes which will serve as guardians of Iraq's oil infrastructure and ensure that every single American can drive by themselves to work every single day of the year without resorting to cycling, carpooling or, worse, transit.

Ultimately this will be the worst result for Iraq. Iraq will become like a walled gas station surrounded by a hyper violent neighbourhood. Anyone who comes near the gas station will be killed by its protectors and anyone who tries to live a "regular" life outside the gas station will live with the fear of death and robbery every moment of their lives. Towns and cities will become ethnic enclaves and ethnic cleansing will be commonplace. Children raised in this misery will see the gas station from afar and seethe with resentment at the Americans and will fill the ranks of Al-Qaeda and many, many more like minded organizations.

Instead of withdrawing their forces countries like Italy and Japan should demand that the United Nations be given the mandate to lead Iraq to stability. Then a number of countries such as India and Germany, who opposed the invasion initially, will be able to offer Iraq their support and troops to police the entire country, not just the oil infrastructure. The United Nations is the only body capable of possibly saving this debacle.

But I don't expect the Americans and British to share ownership of the gas station with the Iraqis let alone the United Nations. Peak oil sadly makes selfishness rampant.