How to be Strategic

So perhaps you want to avoid electing the Conservative Party of Canada to a majority or even a minority government on October 14. But every stupid news source is telling you that you should just vote Liberal or vote strategically. What to do?

First take a deep breath. This isn't as hard as it might seem.

Then direct your web browser to the Elections Canada 39th General Election results page. Then click on "Poll-by-poll results Electoral districts" on the left hand side. That will open up a list of Canada's provinces and territories.

Now find your riding. Hopefully you know your home riding; if you don't, visit Elections Canada's Voter Information Service and input your postal code to find out.

Now go back to the results page and select the results of the last general election in your riding. Elections Canada has a pretty crappy setup for results so you have to check each column to see how each party and candidate did. But with a little persistence you'll see who won and by how much.

That will give you an idea of how to vote if you want to be strategic.

Here's how. Most ridings are a contest between two parties. Usually this is either between the Conservatives and the Liberals or the Liberals and the NDP. Rarely the NDP takes on the Conservatives but this can happen in some strange places like Central Nova (where Peter MacKay may take a mighty fall on October 14--this will make sense when you consider that the Liberals aren't running a candidate). Sometimes you get all three major parties (Liberals, NDP, and Conservatives) being competitive with one another.

The result numbers from the last election will tell you how to vote (this assumes that people won't vote very differently this time around or that a saviour doesn't arrive*). If it's a contest between the Liberals and the Conservatives and the NDP aren't anywhere close then you might want to vote Liberal to prevent a Conservative win in the riding. If it's between the Liberals and the NDP and the Conservatives don't figure then you can vote for either with a clean conscience. If the Conservatives are close then you should probably vote for the highest vote getter in the last election to be safe. Voting Green is fine but only if you know that the seat is safely in the hands of a party you approve of; unfortunately the Green Party is unlikely to ever win a seat in Parliament.

*One caveat: sometimes the candidate actually matters (amazing isn't it, the people you are electing aren't just robots?). A popular candidate can make all the difference as was the case with the election of NDP candidate Thomas Mulclair in Quebec in a recent by-election.

**The Conservatives are going to probably get a few more and the Liberals a few less votes because of Dion's dismal English and because the Conservatives are currently in power and that always helps because people are stupid. The extra votes can only come at the expense of the Liberals as the next party along the spectrum; an NDP voter might vote Liberal but will doubtfully switch to the Conservatives for instance). So try and factor the Conservatives getting a few more votes in your strategic choice to vote.

Let's use Hamilton East-Stoney Creek as an example. In 2006, the NDP won the seat with 17,599 votes. The Liberals took 16,662 votes and the Conservatives took 11,572. So this was a close race. This time around the Liberals have a star candidate in former Hamilton mayor Larry Di Ianni but he's also seen to be extremely corrupt and in bed with developers. So this one is hard to call but it's safe to vote NDP if you so desire because even if they don't get in the Conservatives aren't likely to get in.

Oakville provides another useful example of the importance of strategic voting. In this riding the Liberals won by a few hundred votes over the Conservatives in 2006. The NDP didn't even come close. So in Oakville this time around, vote Liberal to keep the Conservatives from getting the seat.

But in the end do what you want. If you want to vote for the Green Party, then go for it. If you like the Marijuana Party choose them. If the NDP is your cup of tea give them your vote. Just don't be disappointed when Harper wins his majority.

I should also remind everyone that all the parties don't actually give a fuck about the planet (yes even the Green Party) so we're kind of doomed anyway. With this in mind you might want to vote Conservative because at least they will destroy civilization faster and we can get on with the job of picking up the radioactive and plastic pieces.

As much as I want to speed this up, I just don't want to hear Harper gloat about winning a majority. I can hear him now: "We're humbled to be the choice of the Canadian people. We are going to stand up for Canada. Canada is officially open for business. If you want to cut down a forest, it's yours. We are going to double investment in the tar sands. We are going to cut transit and boost car ownership in our cities. And now, women no longer have a choice. Our first bill will outlaw any abortions in Canada. Get your coat hangers ready ladies, Steve's back!"