How to be Strategic

So perhaps you want to avoid electing the Conservative Party of Canada to a majority or even a minority government on October 14. But every stupid news source is telling you that you should just vote Liberal or vote strategically. What to do?

First take a deep breath. This isn't as hard as it might seem.

Then direct your web browser to the Elections Canada 39th General Election results page. Then click on "Poll-by-poll results Electoral districts" on the left hand side. That will open up a list of Canada's provinces and territories.

Now find your riding. Hopefully you know your home riding; if you don't, visit Elections Canada's Voter Information Service and input your postal code to find out.

Now go back to the results page and select the results of the last general election in your riding. Elections Canada has a pretty crappy setup for results so you have to check each column to see how each party and candidate did. But with a little persistence you'll see who won and by how much.

That will give you an idea of how to vote if you want to be strategic.

Here's how. Most ridings are a contest between two parties. Usually this is either between the Conservatives and the Liberals or the Liberals and the NDP. Rarely the NDP takes on the Conservatives but this can happen in some strange places like Central Nova (where Peter MacKay may take a mighty fall on October 14--this will make sense when you consider that the Liberals aren't running a candidate). Sometimes you get all three major parties (Liberals, NDP, and Conservatives) being competitive with one another.

The result numbers from the last election will tell you how to vote (this assumes that people won't vote very differently this time around or that a saviour doesn't arrive*). If it's a contest between the Liberals and the Conservatives and the NDP aren't anywhere close then you might want to vote Liberal to prevent a Conservative win in the riding. If it's between the Liberals and the NDP and the Conservatives don't figure then you can vote for either with a clean conscience. If the Conservatives are close then you should probably vote for the highest vote getter in the last election to be safe. Voting Green is fine but only if you know that the seat is safely in the hands of a party you approve of; unfortunately the Green Party is unlikely to ever win a seat in Parliament.

*One caveat: sometimes the candidate actually matters (amazing isn't it, the people you are electing aren't just robots?). A popular candidate can make all the difference as was the case with the election of NDP candidate Thomas Mulclair in Quebec in a recent by-election.

**The Conservatives are going to probably get a few more and the Liberals a few less votes because of Dion's dismal English and because the Conservatives are currently in power and that always helps because people are stupid. The extra votes can only come at the expense of the Liberals as the next party along the spectrum; an NDP voter might vote Liberal but will doubtfully switch to the Conservatives for instance). So try and factor the Conservatives getting a few more votes in your strategic choice to vote.

Let's use Hamilton East-Stoney Creek as an example. In 2006, the NDP won the seat with 17,599 votes. The Liberals took 16,662 votes and the Conservatives took 11,572. So this was a close race. This time around the Liberals have a star candidate in former Hamilton mayor Larry Di Ianni but he's also seen to be extremely corrupt and in bed with developers. So this one is hard to call but it's safe to vote NDP if you so desire because even if they don't get in the Conservatives aren't likely to get in.

Oakville provides another useful example of the importance of strategic voting. In this riding the Liberals won by a few hundred votes over the Conservatives in 2006. The NDP didn't even come close. So in Oakville this time around, vote Liberal to keep the Conservatives from getting the seat.

But in the end do what you want. If you want to vote for the Green Party, then go for it. If you like the Marijuana Party choose them. If the NDP is your cup of tea give them your vote. Just don't be disappointed when Harper wins his majority.

I should also remind everyone that all the parties don't actually give a fuck about the planet (yes even the Green Party) so we're kind of doomed anyway. With this in mind you might want to vote Conservative because at least they will destroy civilization faster and we can get on with the job of picking up the radioactive and plastic pieces.

As much as I want to speed this up, I just don't want to hear Harper gloat about winning a majority. I can hear him now: "We're humbled to be the choice of the Canadian people. We are going to stand up for Canada. Canada is officially open for business. If you want to cut down a forest, it's yours. We are going to double investment in the tar sands. We are going to cut transit and boost car ownership in our cities. And now, women no longer have a choice. Our first bill will outlaw any abortions in Canada. Get your coat hangers ready ladies, Steve's back!"

Blackmail

I've had this thought for some time now. The Bush Administration is warning that if Congress tries to add or subtract from their $700 billion bailout plan it's likely to damage efforts to rescue the economy (a question no one asks is: why do that?). The kinds of things they might like to add are oversight of the massive fund and possibly some supports for families who might be on the verge of losing their homes. The message is clear: do what we say and things won't go bad. By meddling you ensure they will go bad.

Given that the wealthy dominate North America, they have the power to ensure that people suffer. They can move their money around the world as easily as striking a few keys on their laptops. Because we have given them all the power through concepts like trickle-down economics they can bring down the temple. It's therefore a simple matter to punish a government that doesn't agree with them or won't give them what they want.

So even if a progressive government was elected somewhere, they won't last very long. The people will lose their jobs and their (small) comfort and turf them out and all will return to normal. So what happens is that you have parties who realize that being progressive will never work (partly because the wealthy control the media and the chumps don't think critically) so they sell out (see New Labour in the UK or even the 1993 Liberal Party in Canada and Bill Clinton and now likely Barack Obama).

It's hard to address this imbalance of power. I assume that the Democrats are going to cave and make even more handouts to the wealthy. Then again, if you're foolish enough to believe that the state has your small interests in mind then you probably don't fret about such matters.

But how do you address this blackmail? You ultimately have to get people to realize that they are going to suffer to make the world a better place, whether that's within the state system or ideally without. Overturning the old order will entail suffering as new systems are built and it kind of has to happen everywhere because other states will likely not want this poison to spread and will fight back. We've been told that we can have anything we want at any time (thank you WalMart) without working for it. So I don't have much faith in people to accept this degree of inconvenience even if it's in their interest.

But it would be better than the stressed earth doing it for us. That's really going to hurt.

Extraordinary Rendition

I just watched this film on TVO and thought I would share it with you. Unlike North American films, thankfully the British still (sometimes) just put it all out there. I hope you can imagine yourself in this man's place. If only some of the fuckers that pound on him had this ability. But civilization has bred it out of them and here we are at the end of history.

Here's Your Cure!

Get On With It

So apparently a few intrepid people occupied part of a national park in Wales and set up their own ecovillage. They didn't wait for government permission, they just did it. And they have lived there, some without anyone knowing, until very recently. Happily they were not evicted and their homes bulldozed and recently won the right to stay in their homes, where they live without disrupting the park.

They looked to the past for inspiration and built a number of Celtic roundhouses that used to dot the landscape of Wales. Another good lesson there. Humans were more ingenious hundreds of years ago than we are today. They fit in while we are attempting to dominate.

I don't know a lot about this group which seems to include some who live more in the system than others but what they are doing should most definitely be replicated by those who are fearless enough to do so.

Good luck!

Even the Deepest Pockets Have Holes

Unbelievable! So much for the end of big government. This pre-crash stock market madness just makes me realize that money is completely worthless and a creation of the state. How else can the US government just throw $85 billion at AIG and take over Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac? Who's next? These are serious amounts. And they are just giving them to the rich. You might as well call it a tax cut.

Of course the internet and television are full of advice for the average investor (what you're not investing the markets; what about your retirement?). What are we to do with our portfolios? Jump into GICs, pull out while the going's good, ride it out?

No one talks about just fucking right off. Get some land, learn to provide the basics for yourself, get out of the systenm, don't sell your labour. Really cushion yourself against the crashes that are coming. Why kill yourself with a two hour commute and do a job for things you don't need? If you don't fall for the advertising and you can ignore the weight of peer pressure, then you're halfway there.

There's some Mentat advice for your portfolio: burn it.

Are you Serious?

This article by Jonathan Freedland is worth a look for election obsessed North Americans. Ugh, I can't shake the hype. I need to get off the computer and go into the woods for a while.

Essentially it makes the point that the the majority of the world wants Barack Obama elected president. No one outside America wants another four years of Republican delusion. That's a lot of hope in one man. Hard to live up to but he would be light years better than McCain, doubtless.

This passage sits heavily on me:

"For America to make a decision as grave as this one [electing McCain] - while the planet boils and with the US fighting two wars - on the trivial basis that a hockey mom is likable and seems down to earth, would be to convey a lack of seriousness, a fleeing from reality, that does indeed suggest a nation in, to quote Weisberg, 'historical decline'. Let's not forget, McCain's campaign manager boasts that this election is 'not about the issues.'"

--

In other news, the Green Party has arrived. Well done Elizabeth May! Now if we only had proportional representation.

Tipping Point

This video does a good job explaining the concept of the tipping point and positive feedback loops. However I don't think it gives enough credit to the earth's capacity to rebalance itself. For instance, as ice melts in Greenland fresh water floods into the North Atlantic. This freshwater is likely to shut down the Gulf Stream leading to a cooling trend in Europe specifically. Forget about crops in Scandinavia then. But of course what do I know, this may not happen at all.

I personally don't think that climate change will lead us to Venus-like conditions since I have faith in our wonderful earth but we, humans, are most definitely fucked. But as long as there is microscopic life around volcanic vents under the ocean I will die moderately happy. Human civilization has definitely failed and is irredeemable, the only tragedy would be if we took the magic of life on earth with us.

Wake Up, Freak Out - then Get a Grip
by lmmesq

Palin Pain

I have a problem. I have to admit that I'm reading everything I find on this stupid election. I'm falling for all the celebrity hype and for every spec of analysis on Barack Obama and John McCain and their running mates. I know that it really doesn't matter and that ultimately a Democrat President will only differ from a Republican President in the speed with which they destroy the planet. Still the hype and hope have dug their talons into my skull.

Last year I predicted that John McCain would be the next president of the United States. I'm, sadly, now more sure of it than ever. And the venomous Sarah Palin will be the Vice President (can you believe what she said about community organizers?).

It's becoming clear to me that McCain is ripe for the picking leaving Palin president. And she's the perfect president, even better than Bush: close to big oil, ready to blow up mountains for coal and happy to let the polar bears drown. She'll do great murdering all life on earth. And her message is: Guns, Babies and Jesus.

I'm sure Jesus would approve.

From an article I just read: "I love the woman," the pilot on our flight shouts over the noise of the engine, "especially what she wants to do with oil, we just have to drill more, there is no alternative. What's the point of leaving it all in the ground?"

What's the point of leaving it all in the ground? This is the attitude of our live-now, fuck-tomorrow civilization. I've said this before but why do people who cling to this motto bother to have children. You might as well throw your newborn baby in a stagnant septic tank and watch it struggle as it sinks into darkness. Doing so might be a blessing compared with the potential horrors of climate change.

That's the reason why we have to leave it in the ground, fucker. So that morons like you can breed and your spawn can actually have a chance because they certainly won't have oil and a big screen television.

It's over. You're just too stupid to notice.

What You're Not Seeing

"If you cross this line you'll be under arrest--so don't do it". Thanks for the advice fucker!

Not that we should expect much when only a small handful of corporations control the national media (and therefore people's minds) but the lack of coverage of the protests at the Democratic and Republican conventions has been shocking.

Isn't that the whole point of protesting? That you get noticed for a few seconds and then you can go back to your everyday life without actually having changed anything. Perhaps that was a bit too cynical but really, if they are taking away people's rights to protest then perhaps it's time we brought down our governments? Sounds fair to me.

Anyway one of the few credible news organizations left in the US is Democracy Now! run by the amazing Amy Goodman. Goodman was just arrested for covering the protests outside the Republican convention in Minneapolis and for standing up for a Democracy Now! reporter who was arrested despite her clear press credentials.





In other news, a family who travel around the US in a vehicle called the Permibus had their home impounded this week. They teach permaculture principles and demonstrate that humans can actually live in line with natural limits and not push themselves over the edge. You have to wonder what kind of threat this bus actually posed?



Forget protesting, permaculture might just save the world if enough people could just rip themselves away from the television.

Question: how many celebrity shows do we actually need?
Answer: Enough to make us forget that we're killing the planet.